Ireland 2036
What does Ireland look like after five years of these policies? Not speculation. Projections based on costed commitments and evidence from countries that did this already.
Year 1
Construction begins at scale
12,000 social + 3,000 affordable homes in Year 1. Modular home factory under construction. State Construction Company established.
See the policyIndependent Anti-Corruption Agency operational
Agency head appointed by two-thirds Dail majority. SIPO, ODCE and Registrar of Lobbyists consolidated. Standing Commission of Investigation activated.
See the policyChildcare fees cut immediately
Average fees cut by more than €200/month. National Childcare Agency established. First public provision centres opening.
See the policyMental health budget pathway to 10% begins
Free GP care expanding. Safe Nurse Staffing framework implemented. CAMHS recruitment drive launched.
See the policyLiving Wage enacted, union recognition legislated
NMW increased to €14.50. Statutory right to union recognition. Zero-hour contract ban expanded. €300 tax credit for workers.
See the policyImmediate relief across 40 measures
Rent freeze. Childcare cut. €1 off-peak fares. Energy VAT maintained. Fuel Allowance increased. Prescription charges halved.
See the policyRegional assemblies established
Power devolved to regional bodies. Community banking legislation introduced. Town and Village Renewal expanded.
See the policy€1 off-peak fares and free transport for under-18s
Immediate incentive for public transport use. Local Link funding doubled for rural areas. National Transport Policing Unit established.
See the policySolar revolution begins
100,000 homes fitted with solar panels. Free for low-income households. Grants doubled for others. Offshore wind R&D fund of €200m launched.
See the policyCitizens' Assembly recommendations implemented
Decriminalisation of personal use enacted. Resources redirected from prosecution to treatment. Community addiction services funded.
See the policyYear 3
Modular factory operational, vacancy tax biting
Modular factory producing 2,000 homes/year. Vacant homes tax at 10% forces thousands of empty properties back into use. Rent freeze holding.
See the policyFirst systemic inquiries completed
Consolidated anti-corruption legislation enacted. Sectoral reviews of public procurement completed. First prosecutions under new framework.
See the policyPublic childcare model expanding
€200/month cap achieved. Tens of thousands of parents, predominantly mothers, re-entering the workforce. Child poverty falling.
See the policyWaiting lists falling, community care expanding
Regional Health Areas operational. Community primary care teams fully staffed. Dental scheme reformed. eHealth strategy implemented.
See the policyCollective bargaining coverage rising
Union access to workplaces normalised. Collective bargaining covering more sectors. Gender pay gap narrowing. Four-day week pilots underway.
See the policyStructural cost reductions compounding
Solar panels on hundreds of thousands of homes cutting electricity bills by 40%. Public childcare model reducing costs permanently. Free GP care expanding.
See the policyHealth-led approach reducing harm
Drug-related hospitalisations falling. Prison population decreasing. Stigma reduced. People accessing treatment earlier.
See the policyYear 5
Housing crisis structurally broken
75,000 affordable + 70,000 social homes built. Reference rent system stabilising the market. Homelessness halved. Emigration for housing reasons declining.
See the policyCulture of accountability taking hold
Government Accountability Office monitoring all major capital projects in real-time. Senior civil servants personally accountable under reformed Ministers and Secretaries Act. Ireland's ranking on Transparency International CPI rising.
See the policySecond Tier Child Benefit eliminating child poverty
ESRI-modelled Second Tier of Child Benefit taking 40,000 children out of poverty. Ireland approaching Nordic levels of child poverty.
See the policySláintecare substantially delivered
Universal healthcare accessible based on need, not ability to pay. Mental health at 10% of health budget. Privatisation trend reversed.
See the policyIreland's cost of living moving toward EU average
Universal basic services — healthcare, childcare, education, transport — dramatically cheaper. Ireland moving from most expensive EU country toward the average.
See the policyBalanced development visible
Regional economic hubs attracting investment. Community-owned wind farms generating local revenue. Broadband universal. Remote working normalised. Young people staying.
See the policyMajor infrastructure projects progressing
MetroLink construction advancing. DART expansion connecting more communities. Cork commuter rail operational. Western Rail Corridor progressing. 24-hour services in major cities.
See the policyIreland approaching energy independence
80% renewable electricity achieved. 500,000 homes with solar panels. Energy bills down 40% for those households. Ireland positioned as net energy exporter.
See the policyPortugal-style results emerging
Following the trajectory Portugal demonstrated: drug deaths falling, HIV transmission among drug users declining, overall usage stable. Criminal justice savings redirected to prevention.
See the policyThe Evidence Is Already In
These aren't experiments. Other countries have done this. Here's what happened.
Headspace: early intervention youth mental health
Over 2 million young people accessed services. 75% reported improvement.
Mental Health: Funding, Access and ReformCollective bargaining coverage above 80%
In Denmark, 80% of workers are covered by collective agreements. Wage inequality is among the lowest in the world.
Workers' Rights and Fair PaySparkassen: 400 community banks serving every town
385 Sparkassen hold 37% of German retail deposits. Present in every municipality.
Community Banking for IrelandFree public transport nationwide
All public transport free since 2020. Bus and tram usage up 30%.
Transport as a Public Good100 years of public housing at scale
60% of Vienna's residents live in subsidised housing. Average rent is half that of comparable European cities.
Affordable Housing ProgrammeIBAC: the model for the SocDems' proposal
Over 200 investigations completed in first 5 years. Multiple prosecutions of senior officials.
Independent Anti-Corruption AgencyUniversal public childcare since the 1960s
Parents pay max 25% of costs. Female workforce participation: 72% (Ireland: 57%).
A Public Model of ChildcareUltra Low Emission Zone cut toxic air by 50%
NO2 concentrations fell 46% in central London. 74,000 fewer polluting vehicles per day.
Clean Air: Cleanest in the World by 2035This Future Is Available
Every projection above is based on a costed, published policy from the Social Democrats. The numbers come from their budgets. The evidence comes from countries that already did it. As we add more parties' costed proposals, this page will expand to show competing visions for Ireland's future.